Friday, March 10, 2006

Geopolitical "realpolitik" from a Jihadist

Found this bit of salient wisdom by Abu Bakr Naji:

"The jihadi movement had been unsucessful in the past because the superpowers propped up these proxy governments and convinced the masses through the media that they were invincible. The solution, says Naji, is to provoke a superpower into invading the Middle East directly. This will result in a great propoganda victory for the jihadis because the people will 1.) be impressed that the jihadis are directly fighting a superpower, 2.) be outraged over the invasion of a foreign power, 3.) be disabused of the notion that the superpower is invincible the longer the war goes on, and, 4.) be angry with the proxy governments allied with the invading superpower. Moreover, he argues, it will bleed the superpower's economy and military. This will lead to social unrest at home and the ultimate defeat of the superpower.

Naji does not suffer under the illusion that the jihadis can defeat the United States in a direct military confrontation; rather the clash with the United States is more important for propoganda victories in the short term, and the political defeat of the United States in the long term, as its society fractures and its economy is further strained. Naji observes that this strategy was used with great effect against the Soviet Union and that it will work against the United States. Indeed it may work better against the United States because it does not have the ruthlessness or resolve of the Soviet Union."

From the West Point counter terrorist center, in the body of the research document here: http://www.ctc.usma.edu/Stealing%20Al-Qai%27da%27s%20Playbook%20--%20CTC.pdf

Its called "stealing Al Qaida's playbook" but really I think Al Qaida is likely using the strategy of "Many eyes make all bugs small" in reguards to their strategic doctrine.

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